I was 2-2-1 for +.4 units last week. Some of my readers thanked me because they got the Stanford line at 7.5 after my post, but I got it at 8 earlier in the week, so that is a push in my book unfortunately. We won the USC tilt last night, which leaves me at 20-13-1 on the season, and +13.4 units. We also won our NCAAF Play of the Year for 5 units.

On to this week, we are big on the dogs after being on the opposite sides last week:

South Carolina +5 @ Arkansas / 3 units

Arkansas’ wins have come against teams with a combined 20-37 record. Simply put, they haven’t played anyone. They’ve struggled to put anyone away this year, and 5 points is simply too much. Brandon Wilds has shown to be the workhorse that young QB Connor Shaw needs, and the South Carolina D should keep them in this game and force Wilson into a bunch of 3rd & longs.

Rutgers +2.5 vs. South Florida / 3 units

Rutgers is the better D, and is getting 2.5 points at home. Take Rutgers.

LSU ML (+175) @ Alabama / 1 unit

We have to make a play on the new game of the century. Both teams are incredibly talented, and might have a combined 50-60 guys drafted in the next 4 years. According to our math on the game, LSU should win this 43% of the time. With this line, they only need to win about 37% of the time. So this is a simple value play with 2 pretty evenly matched teams. Geaux Tigers.

Northwestern +17.5 @ Nebraska / 2 units

Nebraska is playing well, and is riding high after the big win last weekend. But this is a trap game for the Huskers, with big games at Penn St. and Michigan looming. Coming off of big wins the last two years, Nebraska has followed it up with a letdown game. Rex Burkhead is beat up after running 30+ times against a physical Mich St. D. The OL for Nebraska is beat up as well. Taylor Martinez did something to his wrist in last week’s game, so he may be limited as well. Nebraska will be leaning on the legs of 3 Freshmen and a mistake prone QB this game. Bo also stuggles against mobile QB’s. Nebraska wins this ugly, 28-17.

Key trends: Bo Pelini is 6-14 ATS at home as a double digit favorite. Something else to think about with this game, Northwestern under Fitzgerald is 8-9 ATS as a double digit dog, and in 7 of those 8 wins, the under has hit. So you may want to parlay Northwestern and Unders for a unit or 2.